A utilitarian theory of belief, as put forth in the Washington Post:
"We should believe, as a matter of default, what an accuser says. Ultimately, the costs of wrongly disbelieving a survivor far outweigh the costs of calling someone a rapist."
So you shouldn't believe based on likelihood of truth. You should believe based on likelihood of relative costs to the accuser and the accused?
That form of deduction
suffers from suction.
To be fair to the Washington Post, their media critic wrote:
"Under the scenario cited by Erdely, the Phi Kappa Psi members are not just criminal sexual-assault offenders, they’re criminal sexual-assault conspiracists, planners, long-range schemers. If this allegation alone hadn’t triggered an all-out scramble at Rolling Stone for more corroboration, nothing would have. Anyone who touched this story — save newsstand personnel — should lose their job."